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Lou Slade
KeyNotes Editor
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EDITOR’S HOLIDAY MESSAGE
(With apologies to Clement Clarke Moore)
‘Twas the end of the tax year and all through Lambda Alpha International,
The members were concerned because the economy had become irrational.
Credit swaps and derivatives, foreclosures and low employment,
Had the members cursing and having visions of retirement.
For ailing markets worldwide, new LAI chapters could be the thing,
But maybe our next chapter should be in Beijing.
So in 2012, your editor is hoping you’ll see,
All your markets rebounding and in full recovery.
With Best Wishes to All,
Lou Slade
Lou Slade,
International LAI Editor
North Embarcadero Visionary Plan in Downtown San Deigo to Break Ground
After somewhat more than ten years in planning and processing (The EIR was certified in April 2000) it now appears that in early January 2012 ground will be broken on the North Embarcadero Visionary Plan that will turn the downtown waterfront into a showplace.
The California Coastal Commission gave final approval for the first phase of the project. The project will be paid for from funds allocated by the Port of San Diego, the Centre City Development Corporation and ultimately from revenues generated by the development of two major hotels that face the waterfront. Earlier this year, the Coastal Commission turned down the project because it didn't like the type of trees that will be included in the project or the lighting fixtures.
Phase One will increase and enhance the public's access through a wide esplanade and waterfront promenade. It is designed to improve access to San Diego Bay through pedestrian walkways, roads, parks, open space, trees and public art. The first action taken was the welcomed demolition of a bland aging office structure on the north side of the historic County Administration Building.
Alan N. Nevin,
San Diego Chapter Scribe
Retail's Response to the Recession
The Ely-Chicago Chapter convened a panel of retail experts in November 2011 to discuss the recent changes in the Retail Market sector and what is around the corner as Retail Rebounds from the Recession. The retail market felt the market downturn like the rest of the commercial real estate sector but retail being retail, it is responding quickly by evolving and responding in creative ways.
The Moderator:
- Mike Mallon, Mallon & Associates and Past President of LAI Ely Chapter
The Retail Panel:
- Peter Eisenberg, Clark Street Development - offered the Developer's perspective
- Lara Keene, Baum Realty Group - provided Broker perspective
- Fred Heichman - added the Landlord and Leasing Perspective
The panelists all presented similar and supporting perspectives yet each with a slightly different focus based on their differing roles and experiences in the marketplace. The first report of the panel is that there is good news to report: retails sales in 2011 continue to rise for metro Chicago. We are seeing more opportunistic behavior from the retails who are growing and surviving, and they are pursuing quality merchandising over quantity. While there is an increase in closings, it is slower and not a fast pace. A large part of the market activity has been around the absorption of the vacant big box stores; the Department store sector has been holding it's own; and some new retailers are entering this market including Gordon's, Dress 4 Less, HHGregg, etc. Large format retail is right-sizing itself such as Walmart Express and small Home Depot's who realize that they must decrease size in order to make themselves more profitable. There has been an infusion of capital into the retail markets, such as insurance and pension funds; they are investing in retail development and redevelopment to offset other loss factors.
Chicago is not the only place with growth--both the east and west coasts are stronger. Most development is not taking place in greenfield sites but in the infill redevelopment opportunities with barriers to entry. There are several retail categories where expansion is taking place: fast casual food and general retail greater than 10,000 s.f. like Walmart and HHGregg. Large retailers are also increasing their fresh food components, catering to middle income customers., and they are designing more of a neighborhood market feel in the process. There is a lot of competition in the grocery market, including places like Walgreens, who have added fresh food and grocery items. The Jewels and Dominicks of the region are going to have to react and adapt to new upscale grocery chains like Marianos, etc. The restaurant sector includes several new and growing chains like cupcakes, burgers, Mexican, and entertainment/sports bar venues. The other growing retail types are pharmacies, dollar stores, banks, personal fitness, upscale grocery markets. On the flip side, office and electronics stores are down-sizing.
All retailers are looking for high density, high traffic and high income sites. Some are relocating to new sites nearby their existing sites to capitalize on a new amenity, like a pharmacy relocating within short distance in order to add a drive-thru to their building. The deals that are getting done are doing so at lower rents; the rent levels negotiated now are the "new norm" as compared to the rent levels of 2008. The consensus among the panel of experts is that retail is growing, and that although adjustments are being made in occupancy rates and absorption rates and it will be a slow road ahead in 2012, the view is optimistic.
Terri T. Haymaker, Ely Chapter Scribe
Fall Chapter Meetings Focus Upon State and Local Market Outlook in 2012
Member attendance has been excellent this year, largely due to a lineup of quality speakers that have proven expertise on market forecasting throughout the nation and region.
Orange County’s unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high throughout the year, reported at 9.0%, but less than the state’s reported average of 12%. Total jobless numbers in the state are estimated at 15-20%, counting those who’ve dropped out of the job market. Two encouraging factors are low apartment vacancies and a healthy demand for limited new home completions constructed by the Irvine Company.
Steve Figgins, Chapter President, will step down at year-end, having served us well for five years. Karen Davidson, CRE will assume the position in 2012. Karen has been president of the Counselors of Real Estate Southern California Chapter for four years and a Board member for the past two years.
The Chapter was “dark” in August except for a half-day planning meeting by the officers, Board and interested members. We established priority meeting topics and specific Chapter objectives for the coming year.
It is tradition for us to engage monthly program speakers who can offer timely market information and provide take-home business ideas for our members.
Fall meeting speakers have predicted continued volatility in the financial markets and uncertainty attributed to the Western Europe and U.S. debt crisis. Orange County and Silicon Valley job growth is expected to be positive but modest in 2012, and a stable economic recovery is not expected prior to 2014-15. Demand for apartments is relatively strong as families retreat from their zero-equity status in single family homes through short sales and foreclosures.
The State of California’s huge deficit has severely impacted County and City revenues, with no solution in sight. Thus industry leaders are expected to approach the New Year with caution and prudence.
Wayne Silzel, Orange County Chapter Scribe
At its regular quarterly lunch on Friday, December 2nd, the Aloha Chapter heard a presentation by board member Guy Kalekakui concerning the powers and responsibilities of the state's new Public Lands Development Corporation. Established by statute in the 2011 legislative session, the PLDC has the power to undertake development on state land in cooperation with private developers. Significantly, such projects are specifically exempt from land use and environmental regulation at either the state or local government levels. Of revenues generated by such projects, 85% is returned to the state Department
of Land and Natural Resources (where the PLDC is located for administrative purposes) and the PLDC keeps the remaining 15%.
Sacramento luncheon sponsor LAI Member Russell Austin
“Outside of New Orleans, the Sacramento Valley is the most addressed flood management community… What is done here will resonate across the country,” said Timothy Washburn, Director of Sacramento’s Area Flood Control Agency.
“Costs for flood insurance climb while the aggressive operation of reservoirs, and levee reparation needed to prevent potential floods stall with fiscal challenges.” Washburn explained how rural areas pay disproportionally high insurance costs. FEMA, the federal flood insurer, has a mandate to recapture the cost of insurance benefits paid out from all of those being insured. The loss risk is highest in coastal areas, but at present their insurance cost allocations are similar those located in the interior river valley areas which have fewer and less severe claims. Nineteenth century commerce depended on river access, just as agribusiness does today. Consequently much of the developed land is within the federally identified flood plains.
FEMA insurance rates are based on catastrophic needs, repaying Katrina Treasury debt and establishing reserves. For the next decade Sacramento’s Natomas community will pay $25 million a year for the ongoing cost of the reparation of the Mississippi Valley Gulf resulting from the Katrina disaster. Local communities and the state need to work with the federal government to align the risk-benefit balance while investing in ongoing flood prevention measures.
Luncheon sponsors were LAI member-owned companies: Murphy Austin Adams Schoenfeld, LLP, Bender Rosenthal, Inc, Trainor Fairbrook, and CCMeyers, Inc.
Roberta Burke, Sacramento Chapter Scribe and Past President
Long-time LAI member, Dale Naegle, FAIA, passed away November 14, 2011 in San Diego, at 83, of cancer. Dale designed many types of award-winning projects, but much of his work was in multi-family, of which he designed around 100,000 homes. An early project was for his high-school friend and Hollywood icon, Jane Russell. Dale will be long remembered and greatly missed by his LAI colleagues and by our community. A more extensive article on Dale’s passing can be found at signonsandiego.com.
| Chapter |
First Name |
Last Name |
Organization |
| George Washington |
Christina |
Sassaki |
|
| George Washington |
Sarah |
Campbell |
|
| George Washington |
Christopher |
Shaheen |
|
| George Washington |
Thomas |
Eitler |
|
| George Washington |
Mat |
Daw |
|
| Golden Gate |
Alicia |
Albin |
Waterfront Partners |
| Golden Gate |
David |
Baker |
David Baker & Partners, Architects |
| Golden Gate |
Stephen |
Dominiak |
BRE Properties Inc. |
| Golden Gate |
Steven |
Fayne |
Citigroup Capital Markets |
| Golden Gate |
Philip |
Ginsburg |
San Francisco Recreation & Parks Department |
| Golden Gate |
Morten |
Jensen |
JRDV Urban International |
| Golden Gate |
Todd |
Kohli |
AECOM |
| Golden Gate |
Laurence |
Kornfield |
City and County of San Francisco |
| Golden Gate |
Mark |
Kroll |
SARES REGIS Group of Northern California |
| Golden Gate |
Eileen |
Malley |
San Francisco City Attorney's Office |
| Golden Gate |
Jennifer |
Matz |
|
| Golden Gate |
Maria |
Pracher |
Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton |
| Golden Gate |
Mary C. |
Comerio |
College of Environmental Design |
| Golden Gate |
Jonathan |
Scharfman |
Universal Paragon Corporation |
| Golden Gate |
Robert |
Gray, Jr |
Rockwood Capital |
| Golden Gate |
Robert |
Steinberg, FAIA |
Steinberg Architects |
| Golden Gate |
Tomas |
Schoenberg |
The Swig Company |
| Golden Gate |
Tiffany |
Bohee |
San Francisco Redevelopment Agency |
| Orange County |
Tracy |
Myers |
Thornton Tomasetti |
| Phoenix |
Dave |
Susank |
|
| Phoenix |
Robyn |
Interpreter, Esq |
|
| Phoenix |
Keith |
Russell |
|
| Phoenix |
William |
Spart |
|
| Phoenix |
Justin |
Merritt |
|
| Phoenix |
Kurt |
Lefteroff |
|
| Phoenix |
Judy |
Herbig |
|
| Phoenix |
Sharon |
Harper |
|
| Phoenix |
Rex |
Caldwell |
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| Phoenix |
Randall |
Parmele |
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Remarks by Frank Clayton Following Receipt
of President’s Award of Recognition |
» back to top |
Simcoe Chapter of Lambda Alpha International
- Tuesday, November 22, 2011
I would like to share with you some of the important ideas I have learned from 44 years of working as a professional economist in the fields of real estate, urban, and municipal finance, both for the public sector and as a private consultant with public and private sector clients.
- Land economics is multi-dimensional and multi-discipline
No single profession or area of expertise has all the answers. Effective urban problem-solving and policy-making is dependent on the know-how of a range of disciplines including, of course, economics. Economics contributes by helping to determine whether particular policies or projects being contemplated are feasible and whether we are likely to get the “biggest bang” in terms of results for the resources expended.
- Economics as a discipline has been underemployed in urban research and policy-making
Here in Ontario, in particular, economics has been relegated to the back burner in urban policy-making. Urban fads of the last couple of decades, including healthy cities, social equity, and green cities, have been driven by the environmentalists and the social reformers. Until the severe economic downtown of 2008-2009, there was little interest in checking whether urban policies and projects are effective in terms of achieving results with a minimal outlay of resources and minimum economic distortion.
- It is very difficult for urban professionals to maintain professional integrity
This is as true for professionals employed in municipalities who are in daily contact with their political masters and their political agendas as for professionals retained by private developers to get their projects approved or to provide expert testimony on behalf of their clients. I truly admire professionals who are able to retain their professional independence in spite of all the external pressures.
- There is an essential need for a much wider use of benefit-cost analysis in the urban arenaBenefit-cost analysis is an invaluable tool for helping assess the impacts of investing in projects and policy issues at the urban level. In the private business arena, decisions are made in terms of expected income, costs and profits while ignoring broader social and environmental implications. Benefit-cost analysis expands the analytical framework to incorporate implications such as externalities for other affected parties including the broader society. An improved understanding and usage of benefit- cost analysis will facilitate better urban decision-making.
The Province of Ontario’s greenbelt and growth management directives for the Greater Toronto Region and beyond is deficient because it has been driven by environmentalists and their agenda without regard to economic implications. Economic issues like impact on housing prices and affordability were not considered.
- Effective urban policy requires government to provide the framework and the private sector to implement
It is exasperating to see urban policies being formulated by people who have no understanding of how the private market operates. It is equally exasperating to hear private sector participants decry land use regulations that prevent them from maximizing their profits. Government and the private sector need each other in the urban sphere – policies built around this interdependence leads to the public good being served more effectively and efficiently.
- There is a need for a body to conduct applied urban research and policy assessment with an economic focus centred on the Greater Toronto Area
The Greater Toronto Area faces serious policy-related challenges, including land-use planning, housing, immigration, transportation, environmental quality, income inequality, fiscal management, and intra-regional cooperation. By uniting economics and market analysis with a deep understanding of social and environmental considerations such a body would contribute to sustainable, strategic GTA land development and urban policy formation. The Bureau of Municipal Research that was active when I came to Toronto in the 1970s forms one model for such a research body. In closing, I am very appreciative and honoured by this evening’s award of recognition by Susan Schiller, President, and the Board of Directors of Simcoe Chapter.
Thank you,
Frank Clayton
LEF is a not-for-profit charitable foundation organized to administer an investment fund which provides grants for research projects related to land economics. Over the past three years LEF has committed capital (5% of assets) to a number of significant and worthwhile endeavors across the country on a matching basis with other non-profit entities. The following are projects LEF has funded to-date.
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$5,000 |
Safe Horizon – The Foundation funded $2,500 in the Spring of 2006; another $2,500 in the Fall was matched by another non-profit entity. This Housing Mediation Program was initiated in operation at three Domestic Violence Shelters in Manhattan and Brooklyn, and has been expanded into a 40-hour training program for volunteer mediators. This program has subsequently been expanded nationwide to assist underprivileged/under-educated residents with aggressive landlords, funding support from the IBM Foundation. |
$5,000 |
San Diego Canyonlands Video – This information/education video was concluded and aired on San Diego cabled television stations to further the community’s knowledge on maintaining environmentally significant canyon areas and linking these connectors with nearby urbanizing areas. The preservation of vital open space areas is necessary to maintaining the ecosystems of the county; a mitigation program is now in effect in the County. |
$5,000 |
ASU Graduate Student Chapter – Implemented and monitored by LAI’s Phoenix Chapter, a real estate based graduate student sub-chapter has been successfully formed. Funded on a matching basis by the local chapter, the students enjoy the benefits of real estate community involvement, networking, and clearly a more practical understanding of our industry through monthly meetings plus an annual conference with MIT’s real estate school. The program is in effect and has become a resource for future LAI membership. |
$30,000 |
Burnham Centennial Celebration – Funded over a four-year period with matching funds from the Ely Chapter, the project allowed Lambda Alpha to directly participate in the presentation of the project in 2009 and share in the promotional benefits of this historic undertaking. Chicago was masterplanned under the leadership of Daniel Burnham, who went on to prepare plans for San Francisco, the National Capital in Washington, Manila, etc. The impacts of this plan are still being felt by planners nationally and, especially, in Chicago where it continues to be viewed as a guide by both the private and public sectors. A textbook resulted from the Chapter’s involvement and has become a recognized resource document. |
$5,000 |
Historic Preservation and Land Use Economics of St. Catherine’s Indian School – St. Catherine’s School is the largest adobe building in the southwest, and as the name implies, was a religious school dictated to the native Indians. Currently programmed for restoration by both the ownership and city of Santa Fe, LEF is co-funding a video and encouraging other prospective developers to recognize the sensitivity of preservation, also to appreciate cultural and economic values of similar public/private endeavors. |
$4,500 |
Ross Minority Program in Real Estate – USC Marshall School of Business; School of Policy Planning & Development meet twice each year; the spring session is a two-week resident program, the six-week winter program is for non-residents and lasts for six weeks. This Certificate Program is an intensively comprehensive, educational program that is designed to provide minority urban developers with the technical expertise and access to resources needed to develop significant urban real estate projects in their communities. The format provides real estate development and finance education for minority entrepreneurs and professionals. It was founded in 1993 by the Community Redevelopment Agency of Los Angeles, USC and others interested in redevelopment. Sponsored by USC, it has graduated over 500 leaders in urban revitalization; LEF has participated on a co-sponsor basis. |
$5,000 |
Light Rail Value Impacts – With the completion and now operational Light Rail system in Phoenix, the Foundation underwrote the cost of updating a ULI study addressing the impact on land uses and values surrounding the stations along the new rail line. A Master’s Thesis was submitted and published by Arizona State University; the study revealed and measured the impact on lands surrounding the METRO stations both in terms of intensity of development as well as the inherent appreciation in property pricing. The information was segmented by community as surrounding land uses affected the ability to recycle land and the constraints on value potential.
Vacant Land Values: A QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF PHOENIX METRO LIGHT RAIL STATIONS |
$10,000 |
San Miguel de Allende Land Use Study – A technical workshop involving fifteen participants from multiple disciplines was assembled in Mexico to provide guidance for urban growth patterns, transportation, water management, conservation, etc. for this community of 80,000 people. LEF participated with six alliance partners. This colonial town in central Mexico is a haven for international visitors, retirees and US second-home expatriates. The prospects for urban sprawl threaten to undermine the quality of the community, the end-product of the workshop provided the local leadership with guidelines to oversee an orderly and disciplined growth pattern. |
$25,000 |
Urbanist Agenda for America’s Cities – The San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association is undertaking the publishing of a text book of expanded essays involving eight major cites from San Diego to Toronto. The focus of each community study will be the understanding of basic community components from - developmental guidelines to water to transportation – to determine what is successful and what is not. More importantly, why a specific focused program did not function as planned, and to learn from mistakes. An LAI member from each city will be part of the process. |
$7,500 |
John Marshall Law School – Identified as the Kratovil Conference on Real Estate Law & Practice: “40th Anniversary of our Quiet Revolution in Land Use Regulation”, this one day seminar will be hosted by the Law School in Chicago, along with LAI members from the Ely and Hawaii Chapters; the conference will focus on Land Use Regulation, Real Estate Ownership and Development. This high profile endeavor will involve interaction between scholars, leading practitioners, real estate attorneys and industry leaders. The collateral efforts of LAI participants and national exposure through various media outlets are a plus to the organization. |
$10,000 |
Sustainable Property Guidelines – Sustainable real estate is a growing sector of the real estate market, but lacking consistency as to performance measurements and reporting standards. LEF has committed funds to extend a research project to define both public and private sector criteria to evaluate the standards needed to ascertain the environmental merits of LEED (US) and BREEM (UK) projects. This second phase component of the project will involve LAI members; the concluding third phase is the correlated narrative results to be implemented and published by the Pennell Center for Real Estate Development at Clemson University. |
Steven R. Gragg MAI, FRICS, LEF President
Lambda Alpha International (LAI) has recently created a group on Linkedin.com. Linkedin is an online professional network of more than 60 million professionals in over 150 industries. Linkedin is a great place to exchange information, ideas and opportunities. Linkedin allows you to:
- Stay informed about your contacts and industry,
- Find the people & knowledge you need to achieve your goals, and
- Control your professional identity online.
Our LAI Linkedin group will provide a means to further promote communication and networking among LAI members. Please join us at LAI’s newest place to network: www.linkedin.com.
Moving? Changing Jobs? Name Changed?
Please visit the Members Only section of the LAI Website and under the Member Services section you can update your profile.
Forgot how to login? No problem.
Please visit the LAI Website at www.LAI.org. On the left hand side click on the Members Only Tab. Here you will need to use your email and the password is lai.
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