LAI KeyNotes: October 2008

Helen Sause

Editor’s Column

Dear Colleagues,

OH TORONTO! What hospitality! A terrific Land Economics Weekend! The LAI participants had a wonderful time exploring this major international city and learning of the developments planned as well as those underway.

The City has kept housing as a strong priority in the downtown and consequently it has wonderful retail thoughout the city core, as well as major shopping and cultural centers. Its neighborhoods also provide a great sense of intimacy for such a large city. The response to the social challenge of absorbing of a huge continuing immigrant population enriches the diversity of the cityand is noticable not only in the population but the wonderful resturants and shops.

The Executive Board, Board of Directors and Land Economics Foundation put in a full day Thursday. A lot of issues of interest to the membership and the "good of the order" were thoroughly considered and enacted. New policy directions and those that embody current practice were adopted. These included adoption of the LAI Strategic Plan which has been under consideration for some time. It will provide the organization with strong direction, and at last, in one place is a document outlining the process for starting a chapter. A focus on membership retention resulted in some new approaches, adoption of the 2009 budget showed the organization fiscally healthy and provided funding for some new initiatives, and finallly the great pleasure of approving the Irish Chapter Charter!

The tours of this incredible city and photos will be featured in the November KeyNotes edition. Best of all was this rare and valued opportunity to be with colleagues that we don't often see, though we may be in email or phone contact. All of us relished the great and generous hospitality that the Simcoe Chapter provided! I am sure we are a leaving this Land Economics Weekend with great gratitude for their wonderful efforts allowing us to share this magnificant city.

Sorry we missed some of you but hope you will mark you calendars for the Spring Land Economics Weekend in Vancouver--it is May 7-9, 2009. As the kids say "be there or be square"...or do they say that anymore? At any rate hope to see you all in Vancouver!

‘Til next time.

Helen Sause
International LAI Editor
helensause@alamedanet.net

In Memoriam

Philadelphia Chapter

Leslie J. Carson, Jr.

reprinted from the Philadelphia Inquirer article

Leslie J. Carson, Jr., 72, of Overbrook Farms, a lawyer and community activist, died of myelofibrosis, a bone-marrow disease, Friday at Bryn Mawr Hospital.

Since 1973, Mr. Carson had maintained a law practice in Philadelphia. He specialized in real estate and business law. In 1986 he argued a case before the U.S. Supreme Court involving commodity futures trading.

For the last several years, he had been a family-advocacy lawyer for Family Court in Philadelphia, helping parents involved with the child-welfare system keep or reunite with their children.

Mr. Carson grew up in San Francisco and Devon. He graduated from Malvern Preparatory School and earned a bachelor's degree from Villanova University.

After earning a law degree from Villanova, he joined the firm of Saul, Ewing, Remick & Saul in Philadelphia. In 1966, he was appointed an assistant district attorney by Philadelphia's newly elected district attorney, Arlen Specter. Two years later, Mr. Carson left that post to run as a Republican for the U.S. House seat in the First District, but lost to the incumbent, William Barrett.

Afterward, Mr. Carson was an assistant attorney general for Pennsylvania. From 1970 to 1973, he was counsel for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Mr. Carson was a member of Lawyers for Life and a past treasurer of the Philadelphia chapter of Lambda Alpha International, a forum for the study of land economics. He was past president of the Overbrook Farms Club, a civic association. In the 1970s, he was a founding member and served a term as president of the Green Hill Club, a community center in Overbrook.

Since 1958, Mr. Carson had been married to Simone Prendergast Carson. They met at the pool at the Philadelphia Country Club, where she was a member and he a lifeguard. He was mild-mannered and never raised his voice to his seven children, she said.

"He was the ultimate reasonable man," their son Christopher said.

Though he battled serious illness for 13 years, Mr. Carson continued to practice law, his wife said, and was going to court as recently as June. He loved spending time with his family at their vacation home in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, she said, and spent a week there this month before being hospitalized.

In addition to his wife and son, Mr. Carson is survived by another son, Mark; daughters Simone Watson, Theresa Shafer, Michele Howe, Jacqueline Carson-Aponte and Kathleen; a brother; and nine grandchildren.

We have prepared an analysis of shelter affordability by occupations for Honolulu as well as several other metropolitan statistical areas. We have found the public does not well understand who is suffering from rising real estate prices when we, the affordable-workforce housing associates, describe the problem. Also, when working in Seattle, we uncovered some useful analytical tools that could be applied to our data from Honolulu. I have made a presentation to the Hawaii Economic Association about our housing problems specifically with reference to impacts by occupational group. I’m a real estate developer not an economist but I became interested in this approach because I could not find a good definition of “workforce.” It appears that each community has a different definition of the term. Here in Honolulu we have trouble attracting medical personnel, even physicians, because of the high price of our homes. So we must broaden our concept of the constituents of the “workforce” to include as well highly paid employees such as physicians. We need to do this in order to maintain a sustainable society. Attached is our spreadsheet and narrative explaining our analysis. The overview is from my speech.

As the presidential campaigns move closer to Election Day, members of other chapters might be interested to learn more about Chicago’s South Side, home to Illinois’ native son. This year we had two luncheon programs about projects located on the South Side. Of course neither is a greenfield site. One is a former urban renewal site which will be revitalized. The other is a brownfield site, formerly owned by US Steel. McCaffery Interests controls the 275 acre USX Southworks site. They have developed an exciting mixed use redevelopment program, including residential, retail, commercial and recreational uses. Nasutsa Mabwa discussed their preliminary plans for this lakefront property.

Lake Meadows, begun in 1949, included market rate high rise apartments and a neighborhood shopping center. The plan for the 100-acre site for the next fifty years includes diverse uses in a mixed income neighborhood that embraces the architectural heritage of the surrounding community. Three representatives of Draper and Kramer, Forrest Bailey, President and CEO, Donald Vitek, Vice President of Acquisitions and Development, and Gordon Ziegenhagen, Project Manager discussed their Master Plan.

“Who is going to go bust?”
By Héléne Demay, Head of Rental Information Service, IPD.

Timing is all! If she had given her talk two or three days earlier the answer might have been easy – almost anyone. Fortunately, by our Lunch on 9th October 2008 the British financial situation seemed to have stabilised somewhat and Héléne was able to focus on her original ideas.

Her task within the Investment Property Databank (IPD) is to identify and track, over time, the financial resilience of around 60,000 commercial tenants in the UK.The IPD is the UK's main property index and has been going since the late 1970s. All institutional as well as other funds use the IPD as their performance benchmark. Her target audience is largely institutional landlords who, in today’s more difficult times, have come to realise that they have a vested interest in understanding the status of their tenants, and that such understanding can be a crucial element of their investment decisions. The core of her work derives from close study and analysis of the product of credit agencies, particularly, in her case, Dun and Bradstreet. This data is supplemented by also looking at IPD data on rent payment history, by study of County Court judgements and other, more local data. The interest lies, of course, not in the snapshot images, but by the patterns that emerge over time.

As with all such endeavours, the quality of product depends upon the quality of inputs. Héléne admitted, for example, that her data would have offered no insight to the fall of Lehmanns. There is inevitable degradation of input where published accounting allows significant ‘off-balance sheet’ activity (the author wonders if the days of this are numbered). Nevertheless, her time series do give valuable insights that can assist landlords by giving early warning of impending trouble, and perhaps the chance to take ameliorating action.
In the current market there are clear signs of distress. For example rent unpaid after 30 days has doubled over the last year as has the level of default. However, Héléne was keen to emphasise that, given the severity of the ‘credit crunch’, default rates for investment grade commercial property were still extremely low.

Some discussion of names took place, but, under the ‘Chatham House’ convention of Lambda Alpha, these have been censored from my notes. Nevertheless two detailed comments might be appropriate. On the positive side, Héléne had noted the positive performance in her regime of retail warehouses. On the negative, there was some discussion of whether we should be watching more closely some semi-governmental and local government tenants.

Discussion also took place about how her data related to and impacted upon valuers. Whilst warnings from her data are clearly relevant to valuers as well as to landlords, there was some concern that, in difficult times such as the present, valuers might be over-defensive, over-cautious.

Ending on a positive note, a note that might have been more jarring a few days ago, Héléne argued that her data did not show the world to be ending next Friday, or even shortly after.

Michael Mallinson
London Chapter Scribe

Dr. Phillip Kolbe from the Memphis Chapter with William Farina of the Ely Chapter at a book signing for his new book: Ulysses S. Grant, 1861-1864 - His Rise From Obscurity to Military Greatness.
Dr. Kolbe teaches companies "Executive Leadership Lessons from General Ulysses S. Grant" when he portrays the Civil War general.

The process of gathering the incumbent members is on and I have made a good progress on it. The names of people you had furnished and who were earlier inducted for LAI Mumbai Chapter but became defunct are now being contacted. In this process, they have been duly informed by me about my active involvement in LAI and I am sure I will get positive response from them. My endevour would be to at least tap 30% of them and the rest I will gather with whom I am already in touch with in different sections of the society. The recent depression due to global scenario and its cascading effect in the economic development of India has resulted in slowdown in our GDP. Hopefully, team Bush with their $700 billion bailout plan for the financial sector should keep hopes for rescue alive. We have had good rains and political situation has stabilized after the nuke deal and are looking forward for things to go hunky dory in near future for India.

The subject of developing LAI affiliated relationships is a welcome move. These kind of affiliated memberships with foreign organizations like Korea Land Law Association will enable us connect with people with similar goals in other countries. On the similar lines, we in India, we can look at an organization which is very powerful and is famously known as MEDC - Maharashtra Economic Development Council focusing its attention on Maharashtra (Mumbai & Pune) and is the “Investment Facilitator and Development Catalyst” operating since 1957. Some of the eminent personalities have served and adorned the president ship of this council are late Shri S.L. Kirloskar, Nani Palkhivala, B.D. Garware and living legends like Keshav Mahindra, Adi godrej, Vinod Joshi, M.N. Chaini…… The Council acts as an Economic Think-Tank for the industry and State as well as Federal Government. I have been attending their seminars, conferences, symposia and meeting the entrepreneurs / investors / developers. The Council’s seminars are on current issues like SEZs, State Government policies relating to industry and trade, environment, economy, etc. MEDC has association with the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

It would be worth establishing rapport and create congeniality with the organization and thereafter consider to offer / invite some of the members in LAI. In this connection, I herewith give their website: www.medcindia.org and request the board to look into the matter.

The Toronto event unfortunately is colliding with our DIWALI festival and therefore I am not able to join the great event. I would have loved to see Canada’s regional planning, urban areas and transformation of suburban areas into urban entities with our folks. I would like to get the information through the keynotes and your special bulletin. Please extend my greetings to the President / Chairman of the host chapter and all the Executive board members as well as visiting LAI members for the event. Kindly permit me leave of absence for the LAI weekend in Toronto and oblige.

November 21 - Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2009 - 7:30 am - 9:00 am, Ritz Carlton, 24th Street and Camelback Road

December 3 - Holiday Party and New Member Induction - 6:00pm - 9:00pm, The Estate House, Scottsdale Canal

Nominees are:

Rose Arck - ACS Realty Services
Paul Blue - City of Phoenix Aviation
Ken Brooks - ASU
John Chan - City of Phoenix
Dan Colton - Colton Commercial
Paul Dumond
Doug Edgelow - Equs
Craig Jensen - Banner Health
Julie Johnson - GPE Commercial Advisors
Rod McKinnon- RW McKinnon & Co.
Chet Pearson - GEC
Steve Prokopek - City of Peoria
John Randolph - Mohr Hackett
Mark Satern - Bank of the West
Chaz Smith - Colliers
Deb Stark - City of Phoenix
Jay Tubbs - Ryan Companies

Mr. Hank Dittmar, Chief Executive of the Prince’s Foundation for the Built Environment will be the guest speaker for the November 5th dinner event. He will be speaking on the sustainable urban development in the U.K. and the work of the Prince’s Foundation.

The Prince’s Foundation is an educational charity that seeks to improve the quality of people’s lives by teaching and practicing timeless and ecological ways of planning, designing and building. On behalf of the President, HRH The Prince of Wales, Mr. Dittmar leads the Foundation in contributing to the design of their built environment at practical and policy levels both in the U.K. and internationally. He leads a team of urban designers and architects engaged in exemplar projects, a research resource that focuses on the economic, environmental and social sustainability of the built environment and a growing education and skills training program.

Vancouver’s fall season is thick with elections, with dozens of federal and municipal candidates going before the voters in the October 14 federal election and the November 15 municipal election.

On September 24, LAI’s Vancouver Chapter meeting provided the first opportunity for the two major parties’ mayoral contenders to face off. Peter Ladner, nominee of the Non-Partisan Association, emphasized his experience serving as a city councilor since 2002 and how this has honed his ability to manage the city successfully. Gregor Robertson, the Vision Vancouver party’s nominee, stressed his readiness to lead the city in a time of change and pointed to his career in the provincial legislature and as a business entrepreneur.

Both candidates identified homelessness as Vancouver’s greatest challenge and promised to making housing a priority in their administrations. Solutions ranged from encouraging developers to add more affordable units to their projects to expanding the amount of public housing. Peter Ladner promised to make Vancouver a safer city, while Gregor Robertson committed to leading Vancouver toward becoming the world’s greenest city. Spirited dialogue followed the candidates’ opening remarks as they were questioned about architecture, land use and tax policies by LAI members. By the evening’s end participants had gained a better understanding of these mayoral candidates and what their campaigns would focus on in the race to lead our city’s future.

At its recent Annual Meeting, the Zia Chapter inducted 7 new members, elected officers and enjoyed a great guest presenter. Our new members are: Michael Greene, co-owner of The Goldsmith Group; Ted Harrison, founder and President of Commonweal Conservancy and Galisteo Basin Preserve; Jack Hiatt, City of Santa Fe Land Use Director; Jeff Laird, President, Laird & Co. commercial real estate brokerage; Albert Moore, founder and President, Albert Moore + Associates, LLC, architecture and community planning; Lorn Tryk, Lorn Tryk Architects; and Sharron Welsh, Executive Director, Santa Fe Community Housing Trust. Julia Rose was elected as our Vice President for Programs and Events. Continuing on the Board are: Tom Mills, President; Suby Bowden, Vice President--Membership; David Henkel, Treasurer; Moo Thorpe, Secretary; Michael Maremont, Immediate Past President; and Anne Honstein, At Large Board Member.

We said farewell to our Administrator, Ms. Luria Dickson, who has served with dedication in that capacity since we were chartered in 2005. We welcomed Ms. Anita Martinez as our new Administrator.

Albuquerque architect, Dale Dekker, a Principal of the celebrated New Mexico architectural and planning firm of Dekker Perich Sabatini gave a presentation on "Trading Green: Toward Green Buildings Through Cap and Trade", in which he traced regional and national trends in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and discussed what will be needed to make the business case for green buildings. His presentation was warmly received (no pun intended) and generated lively discussion.

Attention LAI Members! Forgot how to login? No Problem
Please visit the LAI Website at www.LAI.org. On the left hand side click on the Members Only Tab. Here you will need to use your email and the password is lai.

Dear Members:

Lambda Alpha International would like your help by answering a very short survey about the Land Economics Weekends. These Weekends, which we have done in cooperation with local chapters, are an important part of the lambda Alpha International offering. We want to know how we can improve these biannual events for you.

Survey Monkey collects your responses and you will not be personally identified. We appreciate your attention to this matter and your quick response!

Click here to access the link:
www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=OyTSJv_2fngAjbwbm7OcDLYg_3d_3d
If the hyperlink on your screen is not working, please copy and paste the link into your browser.

Thank all of you for your contributions to KeyNotes! The information that you share helps others to be more effective and get more out of our efforts to improve land economic practices. And a huge thanks to Michele Meng on the staff and Kathy Keler the KeyNotes webmaster!

A couple of suggestions that may make the reporting easier and more effective for us all. I offer the following:

-Deadlines:

I know that this takes time to do and that everyone one of you is extremely busy just getting through your “day jobs”. Perhaps inviting someone (new to the organization?) to take on the “reporting/ scribe” function would be a way to involve them in and spare you from being the front line person to collect information.

We hope that this might be useful in making participation in KeyNotes less of an afterthought and more intentional and thus increase its usefulness to you. Please let me know your thoughts OR BETTER YET let’s see if we can share information! I look forward to working with you.

Grant Approval Valley Metro Light Rail: Land Values at Transit Stations

The Land Economics Foundation met on Thursday October 23, 2008 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. It considered and approved a grant application entitled "Valley Metro Light Rail: Land Values at Transit Stations." The grant was approved for $5000 to Katherine Kittrell, a graduate student at Arizona State University, for a thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Masters of Urban and Environmental Planning. This study quantifies one portion of the light rail’s impact on the local economy: land value changes from the year 2000 through the year 2007. It identifies the overall direction of change in land values and compares the magnitude to other areas in Maricopa County. Professor Crocker Liu (ASU WP Carey School of Business) will act as LAI Phoenix Chapter liasion for the project.

The Trustees of the Lambda Alpha International Land Economics Foundation invite your submission of worthwhile projects of social, community and/or international significance. Grants should relate to the real property business and particular emphasis will be placed on applications, which include an educational component and enhance the awareness and image of the LAI organization, land economics, and/or the enhancement of the real estate profession. For additional information go to http://www.lai.org/go/foundation/ or contact LEF President Steven R. Gragg, MAI, MRICS at 602-229-5974 or steven.gragg@cushwake.com.

Save the Date ! ! !

Vancouver, Canada, Spring Land Economics Weekend
May 7- 9, 2009
Terminal City Tower Hotel
837 West Hastings Street
Vancouver , B. C. Canada
www.tctowerhotel.com

Hotel Reservations
Rates: $210.00 CAN Net, + taxes Single/Double
Phone: +604 681 4121
Toll Free: 1-888-253-8777
Fax: +604 488 8617
Email:hotel@tcclub.com
Registration Form coming soon!

Future Land Economics Weekends (Subject to Change)

2009
Spring: Vancouver, Canada, Vancouver Chapter
Fall: Chicago, Ely Chapter